Bayern Munich v Union Berlin

18+

Bundesliga · Fri 18 Sept, 18:30

Data: good

Bayern Munich win: 65%
Draw: 16%
Union Berlin win: 19%

FootyGrounds prediction

Bayern Munich to win

Model probability 65%

Predicted scoreline

3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Bayern Munich strength rating 1639 v Union Berlin 1597
Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +5 v Union Berlin -6
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 65% (Elo 54%, goals 68%, recent form 84%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 30 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model54%
Goals model68%
Recent-form model84%

Component disagreement: 29.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 65% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 65%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.