AS Monaco v RC Lens
18+Ligue 1 · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- AS Monaco win
- 55%
- Draw
- 20%
- RC Lens win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
AS Monaco to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AS Monaco strength rating 1642 v RC Lens 1617
- Superior goal difference: AS Monaco +4 v RC Lens +1
- AS Monaco unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 52%, recent form 70%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model70%
Component disagreement: 19.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.