Alverca v Rio Ave
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 19 Sept, 17:00
Data: excellent
- Alverca win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Rio Ave win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Alverca to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Alverca strength rating 1609 v Rio Ave 1589
- Alverca home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Rio Ave away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Alverca -3 v Rio Ave -9
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 57%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model57%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 13.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.