Bristol City v Watford
18+EFL Championship · Fri 18 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Bristol City win
- 49%
- Draw
- 22%
- Watford win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bristol City to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bristol City strength rating 1555 v Watford 1550
- Bristol City home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Watford away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
- Bristol City have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 47%, goals 45%, recent form 61%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model61%
Component disagreement: 15.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.