Barnet v Fleetwood Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Barnet win
- 47%
- Draw
- 23%
- Fleetwood Town win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Barnet to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Barnet strength rating 1464 v Fleetwood Town 1454
- Barnet home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Fleetwood Town away form: 1W 2D 0L, 4 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Barnet +5 v Fleetwood Town +3
- Barnet unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 48%, goals 46%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 1.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.