AC Milan v Lecce
18+Serie A · Sun 20 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- AC Milan win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Lecce win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
AC Milan to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AC Milan strength rating 1635 v Lecce 1615
- Superior goal difference: AC Milan +3 v Lecce -2
- AC Milan unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 50%, goals 55%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 5.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:02. Read the methodology.