Swindon Town v Accrington Stanley
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Swindon Town win
- 54%
- Draw
- 20%
- Accrington Stanley win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Swindon Town to win
Model probability 54%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Swindon Town strength rating 1439 v Accrington Stanley 1428
- Swindon Town home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Accrington Stanley away form: 0W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Swindon Town -2 v Accrington Stanley -3
- Swindon Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 74%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 26 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model74%
Component disagreement: 25.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 54% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 54%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.