Lincoln City v Swansea City
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Lincoln City win
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- Swansea City win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lincoln City to win
Model probability 37%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lincoln City strength rating 1565 v Swansea City 1587
- Lincoln City home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Swansea City away form: 2W 0D 1L, 6 scored / 4 conceded
- Lincoln City unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 42%, goals 33%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Swansea City are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model33%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 8.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 37% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 37%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.