Southend United v Barrow
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Southend United win
- 57%
- Draw
- 19%
- Barrow win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southend United to win
Model probability 57%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southend United strength rating 1407 v Barrow 1364
- Southend United home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Barrow away form: 0W 3D 2L, 5 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Southend United +6 v Barrow -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 54%, goals 58%, recent form 63%)
Main uncertainty: Barrow are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model58%
- Recent-form model63%
Component disagreement: 9.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 57% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 57%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.