Reading v Bradford City
18+EFL League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Reading win
- 45%
- Draw
- 25%
- Bradford City win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Reading to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Reading strength rating 1510 v Bradford City 1511
- Reading home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Bradford City away form: 2W 0D 1L, 2 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Reading +5 v Bradford City +2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 46%, goals 48%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Bradford City have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 13.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.