Boston United v AFC Fylde
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Boston United win
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- AFC Fylde win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Fylde to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score24 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Fylde strength rating 1420 v Boston United 1366
- AFC Fylde away record this season: 4W 0D 1L
- Boston United home form: 1W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AFC Fylde +8 v Boston United -2
- AFC Fylde unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 44%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 20.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.