Groningen v PEC Zwolle
18+Eredivisie · Fri 18 Sept, 18:00
Data: excellent
- Groningen win
- 56%
- Draw
- 19%
- PEC Zwolle win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Groningen to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Groningen strength rating 1619 v PEC Zwolle 1583
- Groningen home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- PEC Zwolle away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Groningen -1 v PEC Zwolle -11
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 63%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model63%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 13.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.