Dundee v Motherwell
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Dundee win
- 46%
- Draw
- 25%
- Motherwell win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Dundee to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Dundee strength rating 1622 v Motherwell 1614
- Dundee home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Motherwell away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Dundee +1 v Motherwell -1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 7.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.