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Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal

18+

Premier League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent
Brighton & Hove Albion win
41%
Draw
24%
Arsenal win
34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Brighton & Hove Albion to win

Model probability 41%

Predicted scoreline

2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • Brighton & Hove Albion strength rating 1644 v Arsenal 1657
  • Superior goal difference: Brighton & Hove Albion +8 v Arsenal +7
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 44%, goals 44%, recent form 31%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model44%
  • Goals model44%
  • Recent-form model31%

Component disagreement: 13.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 41% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 41%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.