Millwall v West Ham United
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Millwall win
- 36%
- Draw
- 25%
- West Ham United win
- 39%
FootyGrounds prediction
West Ham United to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- West Ham United strength rating 1592 v Millwall 1557
- West Ham United away record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Millwall home form: 2W 0D 1L, 7 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: West Ham United +11 v Millwall 0
- West Ham United unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 33%, goals 47%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 13.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.