AS Roma v Inter Milan
18+Serie A · Sat 19 Sept, 16:00
Data: excellent
- AS Roma win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Inter Milan win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
AS Roma to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AS Roma strength rating 1663 v Inter Milan 1650
- Superior goal difference: AS Roma +11 v Inter Milan +7
- AS Roma unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 58%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model58%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 19.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.