Yeovil Town v Worthing
18+National League · Tue 29 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Yeovil Town win
- 48%
- Draw
- 22%
- Worthing win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Yeovil Town to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Yeovil Town strength rating 1382 v Worthing 1378
- Yeovil Town home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Worthing away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Yeovil Town +1 v Worthing 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 47%, goals 49%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: Worthing are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 2.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.