Partick Thistle v Arbroath
18+Scottish Championship · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Partick Thistle win
- 52%
- Draw
- 24%
- Arbroath win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Partick Thistle to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Partick Thistle strength rating 1575 v Arbroath 1553
- Partick Thistle home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Arbroath away form: 1W 0D 2L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Partick Thistle +3 v Arbroath -4
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 50%, goals 52%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Arbroath are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 5.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:04. Read the methodology.