Colwyn Bay v Barry Town United
18+Cymru Premier · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Colwyn Bay win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- Barry Town United win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Colwyn Bay strength rating 1638 v Barry Town United 1672
- Colwyn Bay home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
- Barry Town United away form: 3W 0D 1L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
- Colwyn Bay have won 3 of their last 5
- Barry Town United played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 39%, goals 37%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: Barry Town United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model39%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 5.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.