York City v Gillingham
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- York City win
- 49%
- Draw
- 23%
- Gillingham win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
York City to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- York City strength rating 1457 v Gillingham 1449
- York City home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Gillingham away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: York City +5 v Gillingham +2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 51%)
Main uncertainty: Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Gillingham have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model51%
Component disagreement: 3.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.