Hartlepool United v Tamworth
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Hartlepool United win
- 55%
- Draw
- 20%
- Tamworth win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hartlepool United to win
Model probability 55%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hartlepool United strength rating 1375 v Tamworth 1350
- Hartlepool United home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Tamworth away form: 0W 1D 4L, 8 scored / 16 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Hartlepool United -1 v Tamworth -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 55% (Elo 51%, goals 53%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 16.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 55% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 55%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.