Burton Albion v Mansfield Town
18+EFL League One · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: excellent
- Burton Albion win
- 52%
- Draw
- 21%
- Mansfield Town win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Burton Albion to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Burton Albion strength rating 1502 v Mansfield Town 1491
- Burton Albion home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Mansfield Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Burton Albion 0 v Mansfield Town -3
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 48%, goals 52%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 13.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.