Houston Dynamo FC v Sporting Kansas City
18+Major League Soccer · Sun 27 Sept, 00:30
Data: good
- Houston Dynamo FC win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Sporting Kansas City win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Houston Dynamo FC to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score37 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Houston Dynamo FC strength rating 1620 v Sporting Kansas City 1620
- Superior goal difference: Houston Dynamo FC +4 v Sporting Kansas City -33
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 46%, goals 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model68%
Component disagreement: 21.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.