AFC Fylde v Altrincham
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- AFC Fylde win
- 59%
- Draw
- 18%
- Altrincham win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
AFC Fylde to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AFC Fylde strength rating 1420 v Altrincham 1365
- AFC Fylde home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Altrincham away form: 1W 0D 3L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AFC Fylde +8 v Altrincham -5
- AFC Fylde unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 56%, goals 66%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Altrincham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model56%
- Goals model66%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 11.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 59% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.