Nottingham Forest v Coventry City

18+

Premier League · Sat 19 Sept, 16:30

Data: excellent

Nottingham Forest win: 62%
Draw: 19%
Coventry City win: 19%

FootyGrounds prediction

Nottingham Forest to win

Model probability 62%

Predicted scoreline

2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

Nottingham Forest strength rating 1620 v Coventry City 1582
Superior goal difference: Nottingham Forest 0 v Coventry City -10
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 53%, goals 63%, recent form 81%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 28 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

Elo strength model53%
Goals model63%
Recent-form model81%

Component disagreement: 27.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 62% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 62%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.