Caernarfon Town v Cambrian United
18+Cymru Premier · Fri 18 Sept, 18:45
Data: good
- Caernarfon Town win
- 52%
- Draw
- 21%
- Cambrian United win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Caernarfon Town to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Caernarfon Town strength rating 1667 v Cambrian United 1641
- Caernarfon Town home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Cambrian United away form: 2W 1D 2L, 10 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Caernarfon Town +14 v Cambrian United +5
- Caernarfon Town have won 3 of their last 5
- Cambrian United played just 3 days ago
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 51%, goals 57%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. Cambrian United are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model57%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 13.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.