Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town
18+EFL League One · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Wigan Athletic win
- 43%
- Draw
- 24%
- Mansfield Town win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Wigan Athletic to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Wigan Athletic strength rating 1472 v Mansfield Town 1491
- Wigan Athletic home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Mansfield Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 8 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 42%, goals 40%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 10.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.