Rotherham United v Crewe Alexandra
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Rotherham United win
- 40%
- Draw
- 27%
- Crewe Alexandra win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Rotherham United to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Rotherham United strength rating 1435 v Crewe Alexandra 1452
- Rotherham United home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Crewe Alexandra away form: 1W 2D 0L, 2 scored / 1 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 38%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Crewe Alexandra are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Crewe Alexandra have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 8.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.