Barrow v Aldershot Town
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Barrow win
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- Aldershot Town win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Aldershot Town to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Aldershot Town strength rating 1400 v Barrow 1364
- Aldershot Town away record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Barrow home form: 1W 0D 2L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Aldershot Town +4 v Barrow -2
- Aldershot Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 38%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Barrow are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model38%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 14.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.