Shrewsbury Town v Colchester United
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Shrewsbury Town win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Colchester United win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Shrewsbury Town to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Shrewsbury Town strength rating 1418 v Colchester United 1434
- Shrewsbury Town home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Colchester United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 54%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model54%
Component disagreement: 18.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.