Leicester City v Wigan Athletic
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Leicester City win
- 52%
- Draw
- 21%
- Wigan Athletic win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Leicester City to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Leicester City strength rating 1485 v Wigan Athletic 1472
- Leicester City home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Superior goal difference: Leicester City -3 v Wigan Athletic -6
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 49%, goals 49%, recent form 66%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model49%
- Recent-form model66%
Component disagreement: 17.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 09/09/2026, 20:20:06), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 09/09/2026, 22:20:04. Read the methodology.