Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
18+EFL League One · Fri 20 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Barnsley win
- 30%
- Draw
- 26%
- Sheffield Wednesday win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sheffield Wednesday to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sheffield Wednesday strength rating 1519 v Barnsley 1461
- Sheffield Wednesday away record this season: 3W 1D 2L
- Barnsley home form: 1W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Sheffield Wednesday +8 v Barnsley -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 36%, goals 51%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model51%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 15.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:05), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.