Southend United v AFC Fylde
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Southend United win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- AFC Fylde win
- 33%
FootyGrounds prediction
Southend United to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Southend United strength rating 1407 v AFC Fylde 1420
- Southend United home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- AFC Fylde away form: 4W 0D 1L, 13 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 43%, goals 45%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: AFC Fylde are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 9.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.