Portadown v Limavady United
18+NIFL Premiership · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Portadown win
- 36%
- Draw
- 25%
- Limavady United win
- 40%
FootyGrounds prediction
Limavady United to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Limavady United strength rating 1599 v Portadown 1573
- Portadown home form: 0W 1D 3L, 1 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Limavady United -4 v Portadown -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 33%, goals 39%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 24 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 23.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.