FootyGrounds — football is more than 90 minutes
Current language: English
Sign in

Olympique de Marseille v Paris Saint-Germain

18+

Ligue 1 · Sun 20 Sept, 18:45

Data: excellent
Olympique de Marseille win
43%
Draw
25%
Paris Saint-Germain win
32%

FootyGrounds prediction

Olympique de Marseille to win

Model probability 43%

Predicted scoreline

2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why the model predicts this

  • Olympique de Marseille strength rating 1612 v Paris Saint-Germain 1620
  • Paris Saint-Germain away form: 1W 2D 0L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 46%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Model agreement

Model components

  • Elo strength model45%
  • Goals model46%
  • Recent-form model35%

Component disagreement: 10.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.

How this prediction has changed

Previously 43% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 43%.

Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.