Hartlepool United v Worthing
18+National League · Sat 19 Sept, 11:30
Data: good
- Hartlepool United win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Worthing win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hartlepool United to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hartlepool United strength rating 1375 v Worthing 1378
- Hartlepool United home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Worthing away form: 1W 1D 1L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 42%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Worthing are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 3.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.