Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid
18+La Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 14:15
Data: excellent
- Atlético Madrid win
- 40%
- Draw
- 25%
- Real Madrid win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Atlético Madrid to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Atlético Madrid strength rating 1642 v Real Madrid 1657
- Real Madrid away form: 2W 0D 1L, 5 scored / 4 conceded
- Atlético Madrid have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 7.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.