Burnley v Derby County
18+EFL Championship · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Burnley win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Derby County win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Burnley to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Burnley strength rating 1528 v Derby County 1529
- Burnley home record this season: 0W 2D 1L
- Derby County away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 46%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 11.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:05), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:03. Read the methodology.