Valencia CF v Real Sociedad
18+La Liga · Sun 20 Sept, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Valencia CF win
- 39%
- Draw
- 26%
- Real Sociedad win
- 35%
FootyGrounds prediction
Valencia CF to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Valencia CF strength rating 1592 v Real Sociedad 1604
- Valencia CF home record this season: 0W 1D 2L
- Real Sociedad away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 44%, goals 37%, recent form 32%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Real Sociedad are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model44%
- Goals model37%
- Recent-form model32%
Component disagreement: 11.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.