Ajax v Excelsior
18+Eredivisie · Sat 19 Sept, 18:00
Data: excellent
- Ajax win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Excelsior win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Ajax to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Ajax strength rating 1661 v Excelsior 1639
- Ajax home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Excelsior away form: 2W 1D 0L, 9 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Ajax +12 v Excelsior +6
- Ajax have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 50%, goals 56%, recent form 37%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Excelsior are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Excelsior have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model37%
Component disagreement: 18.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.