Celtic v Rangers
18+Scottish Premiership · Sun 20 Sept, 11:00
Data: excellent
- Celtic win
- 52%
- Draw
- 23%
- Rangers win
- 25%
FootyGrounds prediction
Celtic to win
Model probability 52%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Celtic strength rating 1668 v Rangers 1637
- Celtic home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
- Rangers away form: 2W 1D 0L, 4 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Celtic +11 v Rangers +3
- Celtic unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 52%, goals 55%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: Rangers are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Rangers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 7.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 52%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.