Stockport County v Peterborough United
18+EFL League One · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Stockport County win
- 59%
- Draw
- 19%
- Peterborough United win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Stockport County to win
Model probability 59%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score54 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Stockport County strength rating 1515 v Peterborough United 1479
- Stockport County home record this season: 1W 0D 2L
- Peterborough United away form: 0W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Stockport County +6 v Peterborough United -6
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 53%, goals 66%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model66%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 13.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 59% (calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05), now 59%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 14:20:05. Read the methodology.