Leeds United v Crystal Palace
18+Premier League · Sun 20 Sept, 13:00
Data: excellent
- Leeds United win
- 60%
- Draw
- 18%
- Crystal Palace win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Leeds United to win
Model probability 60%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Leeds United strength rating 1637 v Crystal Palace 1589
- Crystal Palace away form: 1W 0D 2L, 3 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Leeds United +4 v Crystal Palace -5
- Leeds United unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 55%, goals 64%, recent form 64%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model64%
- Recent-form model64%
Component disagreement: 9.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 60%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:01. Read the methodology.