Connah's Quay Nomads v Penybont
18+Cymru Premier · Sat 3 Oct, 13:30
Data: good
- Connah's Quay Nomads win
- 47%
- Draw
- 25%
- Penybont win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Connah's Quay Nomads to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Connah's Quay Nomads strength rating 1666 v Penybont 1660
- Connah's Quay Nomads home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Penybont away form: 3W 1D 0L, 8 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Connah's Quay Nomads +15 v Penybont +8
- Connah's Quay Nomads have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 52%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Penybont are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Penybont have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 17.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:03), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.