Scunthorpe United v Hartlepool United
18+National League · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: good
- Scunthorpe United win
- 45%
- Draw
- 25%
- Hartlepool United win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Scunthorpe United to win
Model probability 45%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Scunthorpe United strength rating 1371 v Hartlepool United 1375
- Scunthorpe United home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
- Hartlepool United away form: 1W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 45%, goals 42%, recent form 49%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model49%
Component disagreement: 6.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 45% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 45%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.