Olympique Lyonnais v Stade Rennais
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 19 Sept, 18:45
Data: excellent
- Olympique Lyonnais win
- 44%
- Draw
- 25%
- Stade Rennais win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
Olympique Lyonnais to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Olympique Lyonnais strength rating 1638 v Stade Rennais 1637
- Superior goal difference: Olympique Lyonnais +4 v Stade Rennais +3
- Olympique Lyonnais unbeaten in their last 4 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 46%, goals 48%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. Stade Rennais are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 14.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:04), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:02. Read the methodology.