Fleetwood Town v Rochdale
18+EFL League Two · Sat 26 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Fleetwood Town win
- 57%
- Draw
- 20%
- Rochdale win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Fleetwood Town to win
Model probability 57%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Fleetwood Town strength rating 1454 v Rochdale 1414
- Fleetwood Town home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Rochdale away form: 0W 1D 2L, 0 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Fleetwood Town +3 v Rochdale -5
- Fleetwood Town unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 57% (Elo 54%, goals 56%, recent form 68%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model56%
- Recent-form model68%
Component disagreement: 14.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 57% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 57%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.