Eastleigh v Woking
18+National League · Sat 3 Oct, 14:00
Data: good
- Eastleigh win
- 50%
- Draw
- 22%
- Woking win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Eastleigh to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Eastleigh strength rating 1381 v Woking 1367
- Eastleigh home record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Woking away form: 0W 1D 3L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Eastleigh 0 v Woking -2
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 47%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Woking are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 10.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.