Notts County v Stevenage
18+EFL League One · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Notts County win
- 38%
- Draw
- 28%
- Stevenage win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Notts County to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Notts County strength rating 1486 v Stevenage 1509
- Notts County home record this season: 2W 2D 2L
- Stevenage away form: 1W 2D 2L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 42%, goals 35%, recent form 36%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model35%
- Recent-form model36%
Component disagreement: 7.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:12. Read the methodology.