Crewe Alexandra v Shrewsbury Town
18+EFL League Two · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00
Data: excellent
- Crewe Alexandra win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Shrewsbury Town win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Crewe Alexandra to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Crewe Alexandra strength rating 1452 v Shrewsbury Town 1418
- Crewe Alexandra home record this season: 1W 2D 0L
- Shrewsbury Town away form: 0W 0D 3L, 0 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Crewe Alexandra +2 v Shrewsbury Town -6
- Crewe Alexandra unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 53%, goals 55%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model53%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 14.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 16/09/2026, 10:20:07), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 16/09/2026, 12:20:05. Read the methodology.